Bottom line:  Dow Jones bearish structure remains intact for now as prices trade below 29400. Furthermore, a corrective rally might have terminated just above the 28800 mark.

Technical Analysis:

Dow Jones remains in control of bear after printing 29400 highs last month. The short term structure is looking constructive for bears to continue lower from here (28800). Please note that the drop from 29400 through 28169 is an impulse (5 waves). This can be labelled as a lower degree Wave 1. The rally that unfolded between 28169 and 28900 levels could be defined as Wave 2 of the same degree. Also note that Wave 2 travelled a distance of 61.8% of Wave 1, a typical fibonacci correlation. Furthermore, Dow Jones is also facing resistance with prices hitting the back side of broken trend line. Ideally, the above 5-3 wave structure should be followed by another 5 wave drop lower towards the 27000 mark, as Wave 3 unfolds. Traders might be willing to take short positions around 28800/29000 levels, with protective stops above 29400 and potential price target as 27000 respectively.  The larger wave structure also reveals that Dow Jones might have already completed its rally towards 29400 levels and a bearish reversal might be on its way. It could be too early to predict a trend reversal at this moment but at least another 5 wave drop could be expected. Going further, if prices drop towards the 25600 levels, it would be considered extremely bearish in the long term. For now, the immediate downside targets could be 27500 and 27000 respectively. For the above counts to hold, Dow Jones must remain below 29400 levels. A break below 28600 and 28400 would confirm that a lower top has been carved at 28900, and bears are back in control.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

Dow Jones Chart

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