Forex Analysis:EURUSD Remains Bearish Against 1.1420

Bottom line: EURUSD medium term structure continues to remain bullish against 1.0636 lows. But the currency might have carved an intermediary top around 1.1420 levels. A drop below 1.1167 would confirm that a deeper correction might be underway.

Fundamental Outlook:

EURUSD had managed to pullback from Friday lows of 1.1250 at close. It is trading comfortably above 1.1320 as we prepare to publish the update. Risk sentiment managed to recover despite the rising COVID-19 cases in the US and Asian countries. EURUSD faces a major event risk on July 17, as European Union meets to decide on another EURO 750 billion fiscal stimulus.

GBPUSD managed to gain over the past few trading sessions and peaked 1.2666 today. A broad US Dollar weakness over the past sessions has supported the rise from 1.2250 through 1.2660. Major event risks over the week are Brexit developments, UK GDP figures to be out tomorrow and Unemployment rate the day after.

FTSE had registered 6000 levels last week before pulling back. The indice is trading close to 6200 levels as we prepare to publish today’s update and is soon expected to come under further downside pressure. It is a common phenomenon for risk appetite to rise with rising fundamental concerns, but it might be sending a contrarian signal (risk aversion might be back).

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD might be turning bearish over the short term as it carves a lower top around 1.1360/70 levels last week. If bears are able to break below 1.1167, be prepared for a much deeper correction towards 1.1000 and further.

EURUSD structure since 1.0636 lows has been constructive for bulls as they managed to carve a series of higher highs and higher lows. After hitting 1.1420 highs, EURUSD might be preparing to produce a meaningful corrective drop towards 1.1000 mark at least.

Also mark that the recent rally towards 1.1360/70 levels had stalled around the fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the drop between 1.1420 and 1.1250 respectively. The weekly chart might be suggesting that EURUSD could drop further lower until prices stay below 1.1500 resistance.

Traders might be willing to remain short from current price action (1.1320/30), with protective stops above 1.1400 and projected targets below 1.1000 mark. Only a break above 1.1420 would change the intermediary structure.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

 

EURUSD Chart

 


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