Forex Analysis:Gold Might Have Topped Around $1818.00

Bottom line: Gold prices have dropped below $1800 mark as we prepare this update. It would be too early to confirm a top in place at $1818 but probabilities remain high. A break below $1750 would confirm.

Fundamental Outlook:

DAX had managed to register an intraday high at 12869 levels, before reversing sharply. The indice closed at 12551, down more than -1.0% alongside the SPX500 and Dow Jones. Asian markets have opened gap down today with Nikkei and Hang Seng trading close to -0.80%, as we prepare to publish.

COVID-19 infections have surpassed 13 million worldwide and deaths over 575,000. The tally rose from 12 to 13 million in just 5 days with a few states in the US being worst affected. India has also been adding close to 25K per day since beginning of July and is now the 3rd largest affected country.

Gold has slipped below $1800.00 mark after touching $1812/13 highs yesterday. The yellow metal might come under pressure as the US Dollar Index might see a surge across several majors. Risk associated currencies like the Aussie Dollar might have topped at 0.7000 handle.

Technical Analysis:

Gold had rallied through $1813 levels yesterday, threatening to push beyond $1818, the recent swing highs. The yellow metal has slipped below $1800 levels for now and could extend the drop towards $1750, in the immediate future.

Gold has remained bullish since $1260 lows in 2019, and might be close to terminating the religious uptrend. The wave structure would begin to turn bearish only on a break below $1750 support. Until that happens, it would be wrong to speculate on a potential top.

Most traders might be willing to stay aside for a while, and allow price action to confirm a break below $1750. Please note the RSI has been indicating a bearish divergence since long, on the daily chart. W bearish reversal might be very close.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.


Gold Chart


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