Bottom line:  USDCHF medium term outlook remains bearish against 0.9900 levels. After having drifted sideways for several trading sessions bears could be ready to resume lower towards 0.9450 levels at least.

Fundamental Outlook:

USDCHF has been able to hold its ground close to 0.9755/0.9800 levels as the US Dollar gained across major curries in the past few sessions. Major factors include Fed ruling out the possibility of a negative interest rate monetary policy, US Indices loosing over 3% in the last few trading sessions and re-emergence of a possible US-China trade war situation.

Furthermore, the number of US citizens filing for benefits has now risen to over 36 million over the past weeks. The rising unemployment calls for more stimulus and time to support and recover the US economy. Also, the rise in COVID-19 infections with US and European countries reopening, would boost the safe haven US Dollar.

Watch out for the German and Euro Area GDP figures to be out today with negative forecasts at -2% and -3/3% respectively. Also a negative print for the US Retail Sales figures (-12% Vs -8.4%) may add some pressure on the US Dollar today.

Technical Analysis:

USDCHF has drifted sideways since 0.9500 lows on March 31, 2020. The consolidation might be complete around 0.9784 highs last week and bears might be looking to resume lower again towards 0.9450 levels. If they manage to push below 0.9300 mark, USDCHF would decline further towards 0.9150, going forward.

USDCHF might be retracing its previous rally between 0.9150 and 0.9900 respectively. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen at 0.9450 and hence probability for a bullish bounce is higher. The next Bull Run could push USDCHF above the 0.9900 levels.

Alternately, if prices drop below the fibonacci 0.786 retracement at 0.9350, USDCHF would remain vulnerable to drop towards 0.9150 and further. At the moment, most traders might be willing to initiate fresh short positions with stop above 0.9900 levels with projected targets below 0.9460.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

USDCHF Chart

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