Bottom line: USDJPY outlook remain bearish as long as prices stay below 112.22 resistance. Bulls might be able to push through 108.50 before giving in to bears. A break below 106.50 would e constructive for bears, going forward.

Fundamental Outlook:

NZDUSD had reverses lower from its monthly peak at 0.6585 last week. It might reel under further pressure as GDP figures clocked in the negative today, at -0.2%. The NZDUSD exchange rate is 0.6445 as we write this article and could drop further toward 0.6340/50 levels.

USDJPY exchange rate had managed to gain over the last week and push towards 107.65 before giving up. The anti-risk Japanese Yen could be set to gain further over the coming days as risk sentiment continues to falter. Fear of a second wave of infecting continue to risk and may send Global Equity Markets lower, boosting the Japanese Yen further.

SPX500 had managed to peak around 3230 on June 09, 2020; only to reverse sharply lower. The indice had seen its worst single day drop (over -5.0%) on June 11, since March 23, 2020. A steep rise in COVID-19 infections across the US, China and other regions has sent Global Equity Markets coiling lower. Believe it or not, this might be seen as beginning of a much deeper sell off.

Technical Analysis:

USDJPY remain in control of bears since the 112.22 highs but might rally towards 108.50 mark, to complete the corrective phase. A break below 106.50 would confirm that a top is in place and bears are poised to push prices lower towards 101.50 and beyond.

USDJPY has been retracing the recent drop between 109.90 and 106.50 respectively. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of above drop is seen around 108.50. High probability remains for a bearish reversal, if prices manage to reach 108.50 levels.

Traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions around 108.50 mark, with protective stop above 110.00 and projected targets below 101.50, going forward. Only a break above 111.75, would turn the bearish structure as void.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

USDJPY Chart

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