Bottom line: NZDUSD long term structure continues to remain bullish against 0.5470 lows since March 2020. The currency has managed to hit major resistance at 0.6790 mark yesterday and bears might be inclined to take control back from here.

 Fundamental Outlook:

NZDUSD has managed to hit 0.6790, an eight month high. The risk associated currency pair has been mostly backed by global indices as they continued to rally. The dovish stand by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had no impact as the exchange rate managed to register new highs against Greenback. Further easing of COVID-19 restrictions may add fuel to the exchange rate.

USDJPY has managed to rally since the beginning of this week and closed higher around 106.17 yesterday. The exchange rate has come under pressure since Prime Minister Abe’s resignation over the last week, citing health issues. The anti-risk Japanese Yen might be under pressure as global equity markets continue to inch higher.

SPX500 managed to print fresh all-time highs around 3588 yesterday. Global equity markets continue to push higher with Dow Jones up +1.59%, DAX higher by +2.07%, FTSE up +1.69%. Asian markets follow as Nikkei is up by +1.35% as we prepare to publish. September is considered to be historically volatile and it would be interesting to see price action unfold further.

Technical Analysis:

NZDUSD might have hit a major hurdle around 0.6790 yesterday, before pulling back. A doji candlestick pattern has been produced on the daily chart indicating potential bearish reversal. A break below 0.6720 interim support would confirm that bears are back in control.

NZDUSD has managed to take out a major past resistance around 0.6760/90 levels. This might be an indication that bulls have registered themselves and confirmed further upside after a corrective drop. We cannot rule out further upside from here, but it might be limited.

NZDUSD had earlier dropped to 0.5470 lows in March 2020. The currency has been under control of bulls since then, producing a religious uptrend through 0.6790 levels. The entire rally could be seen as an impulse wave that might have terminated yesterday. Ideally, an impulse wave is followed by a corrective wave towards the opposite direction, which is lower in this case.

NZDUSD bears might be preparing to produce a meaningful corrective drop from current price action, 0.6770 levels. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally is seen towards 0.5950/0.6000 levels. High probability remains for a bullish bounce, if prices manage to reach there. Most traders might have exited long positions as NZDUSD hit major resistance around 0.6790.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

NZDUSD Chart

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