Bottom line:  NZDUSD bullish structure would remain intact until prices stay above 0.6200 mark.  The recent drop from 0.6755 is still corrective and a bullish turn is near.

Technical Analysis:

NZDUSD intermediary bearish move continues more than expected and it seems like a zigzag drop being carved out since 0.6755 highs. The termination point of the above corrective wave is seen around 0.6500/10 levels and bulls should be back in control anytime soon. Also note that the support trend line is also just passing through the current price action near 0.6500 handle. Furthermore, fibonacci 0.618 support is also seen around 0.6485/90 levels. Keeping the above facts in mind, it is good to initiate fresh longs around 0.6500/10 levels against 0.6300 (wave ii termination), with potential targets at 0.6930 respectively.  The larger picture since 0.6200 lows is still suggesting that NZDUSD might be carving an impulse wave towards 0.6930 levels. Within the impulse, Waves 1, 2 and 3 are in place at 0.6450, 0.6317 and 0.6755 respectively.  It is possible that wave 4 is still being worked out and could be close to termination around 0.6500 levels. If the above counts are correct, prices will not drop below 0.6450 levels, keeping the impulse structure intact. Expect a rally to materialize towards 0.6930 in that case, as Wave 5 progresses. Alternately, if NZDUSD drops below 0.6450 (Wave 1 territory), the structure need to be adjusted as an impulse could already be complete at 0.6755 levels earlier. It remains to be seen how price action unfolds around the 0.6500/10 zone. In either case, it is good to buy on dips with protective stop loss around 0.6300 levels and potential target at 0.6930 going forward. We shall be updating the wave counts if required, but for now the bullish structure remains intact against 0.6200/0.6300 levels.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

NZDUSD Chart

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