Forex Analysis:GBPUSD Potential Top Carved Around 1.3186

Bottom line: GBPUSD long term structure remains bullish against 1.1414 lows carved in March 2020. The currency might have hit resistance just below 1.3200 mark as bears remain poised to take control back and push lower towards 1.2000/1.2250 going forward.

 Fundamental Outlook:

EURUSD exchange rate had dropped on Friday by -0.77%, closing in around 1.1787. The US Dollar came back strong amidst job data and the rising US-China tensions. The EURO might come under pressure this week as the Greenback looks set to gain, over geopolitical risks.

GBPUSD had also dropped by -0.70% on Friday, managing to close at 1.3051 mark. The exchange rate had reached up to 1.3186 levels earlier. The recent developments over Brexit negotiations might have triggered the selloff. It might face further pressure as Q2 GDP figures are set to be out this week

FTSE had remained flat and managed to close around 6059 mark on Friday. It is trading higher and back around the 6100 handle as we prepare to publish. The indice along with SPX500, DAX and Dow Jones would be taking its cues from COVID-19 infections, US-China trade wars and the ongoing negotiations over more stimulus packages in the US.

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD might have carved a meaningful top around 1.3186 levels over the last week, just below price resistance at 1.3200 handle. The currency had dropped sharply to 1.3000 handle on Friday, before closing at 1.3050 levels. Looking lower towards 1.2000 handle over the next few weeks.

GBPUSD has been in an uptrend since 1.1414 lows in March 2020. Bulls have managed to carve a series of higher highs and higher lows through 1.3186 mark. High probability remains for at least a corrective drop towards 1.2000/1.2250 mark, before the rally could resume.

Most traders might have booked profits on the long positions taken earlier and prepare to buy again around 1.2000/1.2250 levels going forward. A break above 1.3186 could test 1.3200/50 resistance before reversing lower again.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

 

GBPUSD Chart

 


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