Bottom line:  EURUSD bulls remain in control after printing 1.1200 last week; corrective drops should be taken as opportunities to buy until prices stay above 1.0879.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD might have entered a potential corrective wave, after printing 1.1200 last week. There are 2 short term wave counts that remain valid. First, EURUSD potential support seen at 1.1050/60 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent swing between 1.0981 and 1.1200 respectively. Second, the corrective drop from 1.1181 levels might still unfold as expanded flat taking bulls by surprise and drop until 1.0960/80, before reversing for good. In either case, the medium to long term structure still remains constructive for bulls. The line in sand is 1.0879 levels, and EURO should hold its ground above that mark. Looking into the wave counts from 1.0879 lows, an impulse Wave (1) and (2) seem to be potentially in place at 1.1181 and 1.0981 levels respectively. Depending on the above discussed probabilities, either Wave (3) is underway or could begin shortly from close to 1.0940/80 levels. A high probable trade direction from here remains on the north side, against 1.0879, with potential targets at 1.1500 at least. The short term wave structure is working on a corrective drop towards 1.1050/60 at least and buying on dips still remains a favorable trading strategy. Partial profits could be taken around current price (1.1140), and allow a retracement to above levels before initiating longs again. An aggressive trading strategy could be to initiate short positions with strict stops at 1.1200 handle and target towards 1.1050/60 levels for profits. A potential rally could be unfolding soon from either of the above levels, which could last for several weeks and months as the US Dollar is looking set to weaken against major currencies.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst

EURUSD Chart

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