Bottom line:  EURUSD bullish structure would remain intact until prices stay above 1.0879 lows.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD could be progressing in Wave (3) since 1.0981 lows print on November 29, 2019 and bulls should be poised to push higher towards 1.1500 at least, if not further. Only if prices drop below 1.0981, we could witness a more complex corrective structure unfolding and EURO could drop until 1.0940, before finding support. The probability for latter remains less, but being aware would help deciding the risk factor. Looking at the over wave structure since 1.0879 lows, Wave (1) and (2) could be in place at 1.1181 and 1.0981 respectively. The rally since then could be Wave (3) in progress, with lower degree Wave 1 and 2 in place at 1.1116 and 1.1038. If the above structure holds well, we should see prices remain above 1.0981 and push higher towards 1.15 and further; as Wave (3) progresses as an extended one. A break above 1.1145, which is immediate price resistance would confirm the above structure and that EURUSD has formed a higher low at 1.1065. Alternately, a drop below 1.1027 levels would imply a more complex corrective structure since 1.1181 levels. Also note that the next support could be found around 1.0940, which is fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the entire rally between 1.0879 through 1.1181 respectively. Therefore, a more probable trading strategy could be to buy on dips towards 1.1065 and 1.0940 respectively, with stop levels below 1.0879 and potential target above 1.1500 respectively. Long term wave structure reveals that EURUSD might be setting up for a huge rally until 1.0879 remains intact, towards 1.15, 1.18 1.2 and further. Potential also remains to clear above February 2018 highs at 1.2555 levels, to complete a 5-3-5 structure since January 2017.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst

EURUSD Chart

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