Bottom line:  WTI Crude holds bearish structure until prices remain ideally below 63.33 levels, which is Wave c of the proposed triangle structure.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude high probable price action through Q1 2020 is that the triangle structure should be broken below 50.00, and push lower towards 41.00/42.00 levels going forward. For the above structure to hold, prices should ideally stay below 63.33 resistance, potential Wave c termination. Looking at the overall count since 76.88 highs, the drop towards 42.40 was an impulse (5 waves), labelled as Wave (1) here. The subsequent price action has been a series of 3 wave movement, and each leg has been defined as the triangle boundary a-b-c-d-e. The triangle consolidation has been decreasing resistance and constant support type (support zone is 50.50/51.00). WTI Crude might have terminated the last leg e, of the triangle at 61.38 levels; or might print another high below 63.33, before reversing lower. For now, Wave (2) potential triangle termination has been marked at 61.38 levels. If the above structure holds well, we should witness prices staying below 63.33 mark and reversing sharply lower to break below 50.50 mark. Hence, a high probable trade setup from here is expected to be on the south side, against 63.33, with potential targets below 50.50 and further towards 42.00 respectively; as we push through Q1 in 2020. Alternately, if prices fail to break below 50.50 and reverse higher towards 63.33, the above triangle structure would be invalid and another high above 66.60 levels could be expected. At the moment, we keep the bearish triangle view intact, while prices remain below 63.33, and expect breakout below 50.50. A push below 58.00 will confirm that prices have carved Wave e top at 61.38. Watch out for a bearish reversal around these levels (61.00/10).

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst

WTI Crude Chart

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