Bottom line:  DAX produces a sharp counter trend rally towards 13606 but the bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 13640 levels.

Technical Analysis:

DAX counter trend rally might be stalling at 13606, just ahead of meaningful resistance at 13640. This was expected and discussed last week after 12948 support was almost taken out.  Looking at the immediate short term wave counts, DAX might have produced lower degree waves I and ii at 12973 and 13606 respectively. Ideally, a bearish reversal is expected around current price action as wave iii unfolds. For the above to hold true, prices should remain below 13640 levels going further. Please note that next target is projected towards 12520 and 12000 levels respectively. Traders might be willing to initiate short positions again around the 13600 mark, with protective stops above 13640 and potential target towards 12500 respectively. Alternately, a consistent break above the 13640 levels would indicate that the rally from 11250 is still incomplete and we might have to wait a little longer for bears to take control back. Looking at the larger wave counts, DAX had produced an A-B-C drop from 13576 highs in January 2018 through 10219 in December 2019. Furthermore the rally between 10219 and 13640 has also turned out to be a larger A-B-C. The entire structure could be a part of a higher degree expanded flat that could produce a 5 wave drop towards 10200 levels going forward. If not a 5 wave drop, we can expect a 3 wave A-B-C drop to complete a complex correction W-X-Y close to 10219. In either case, high probability trade direction could be seen lower from here, while prices stay below 13640 levels.  A drop below 13100 would confirm that a meaningful top is in place already.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

DAX Chart

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