Bottom line:  NZDUSD might have completed its drop that had begun from 0.6755 levels earlier. A break above 0.6350 would be encouraging for bulls to gain further.

Technical Analysis:

NZDUSD is believed to have formed a meaningful low just below 0.6200 levels on February 28, 2020. Prices still need to break above 0.6350 levels to confirm the same and push further towards 0.6755 levels going forward. Looking at the wave structure since 0.6755 highs, NZDUSD has dropped in 5 waves labelled here. The entire drop could be the last impulse wave/leg of a larger correction since 0.7562 levels. If the above counts are correct, NZDUSD might have formed a major low at 0.6189 levels and could be underway for a bullish reversal ahead. Also note that break above 0.6350 would be encouraging for bulls but potential remains for the rally to continue until 0.6755, before any meaningful pullback could take place. Most traders might be willing to build aggressive long positions from current levels 0.6290, with protective stop below 0.6189 and projected targets above 0.6755 respectively. A more conservative trading strategy could be to allow prices to break above 0.6350 first and then consider longs on dips. In either way, NZDUSD might be setting up for a potential bullish reversal and ideally prices should say above 0.6189 levels going further. Alternately, since the earlier drop was an impulse, we can expect a corrective rally (3 waves), towards a Fibonacci 0.50/0.618 retracement, if not further. As a common probability in either of the above, NZDUSD is set to produce at least a corrective rally towards 0.6540 if not further. Watch out for a push through 0.6340/50 levels from here to complete a potential leading diagonal structure, as traders prepare themselves to initiate long positions for a potential trend reversal ahead.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

NZDUSD Chart

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