Bottom line:  DAX might be vulnerable for further drop as the structure remains bearish with potential top in place at 10137 levels. A drop below 8255 would complete an impulse from 13800 levels, going forward.

Technical Analysis:

DAX might be preparing to resume lower again after having carved a lower top around 10137 last week. An impulse wave would be complete if the indice drops below 8255 levels in the coming weeks. That would leave room for a meaningful corrective rally presenting opportunities to aggressive long traders.

The recent drop between 12272 and 8255 levels has been retraced just above the fibonacci 0.382 levels at 9800. Bulls have managed to carve a potential lower top around 10137, which could act as potential resistance going forward. Please note that intermediary support remains at 8255 levels and bears might be targeting to break lower.

The drop from 13800 levels seem to have completed a corrective rally, at 10137 last week. If the above holds, DAX remains poised to drop below 8255 levels to complete a 5 wave drop. A meaningful pullback rally can be expected thereafter.

At the moment, most traders might be willing to initiate fresh short positions around 9850/9900 levels, with a protective stop above 10300 (ideally it should go at 11600), and projected targets below 8255 respectively.

Alternately, if 8255 support holds it could confirm that the corrective rally might extend further towards 11000 and higher, before finding resistance. Probabilities for yet another low from here remains high until prices stay below 10137/10200 mark.

Overall, DAX remains structurally bearish since 13800 highs in February 2020. It has carved a series of lower lows and lower highs and is expected to print yet another low below 8255 before finding support. Watch out for a potential test of 10137 resistance before giving in to bears again.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

DAX Chart

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