Bottom line:  GBPJPY medium term outlook remains bullish against 124.00 levels. A short term corrective drop is expected towards 129.00 levels before the rally could resume.

Fundamental Outlook:

The U.S Jobless Claims continued to rise yet again as over 5.2 million apply for befits over the last week. Over the past one month, over 20 Million Americans have applied for unemployment benefits due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The US Dollar could continue its slide against major currencies going forward.

China’s first quarter GDP shows a decline by 6.8%, a first to be recorded in past several decades. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting lock downs/quarantines, the economy has been largely affected in the first quarter of 2020. The effects would lead to several job losses and loan defaults and would be a concern to major economies.

WTI Crude Oil continued to trade below the 20.00 mark yesterday. Russia and Saudi Arabia may agree on further production cuts after the last week OPEC meet failed to curb the drop in prices.

Global Corona virus cases cross 2.1 million with over 146.855 deaths. The U.S continues to top the list at 678,144 cases in total. Over 500 new cases were registered and 24 casualties recorded.

Technical Analysis:

GBPJPY might have completed its first leg (within the corrective rally) around 135.75 levels last week. Structurally, we can expect a drop towards 129.00 at least, before GBPJPY rally could continue towards 139.00 levels.

GBPJPY had earlier dropped from 148.00 through 124.00 levels before pulling back sharply. A counter trend rally was expected towards 139.00 levels at least, before deciding further direction. The recent rally has stalled just below the fibonacci 0.50 retracement at 136.00. Ideally a drop towards 129.00 remains high probability.

Aggressive traders might be willing to consider short positions around 134.50 with a strict stop above 135.90 and potential target towards 129.00. Conservative traders might remain flat for now and wait for the potential drop to complete.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

GBPJPY Chart

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