Bottom line:  DAX remains bearish in the long term until prices stay below 13800 mark. The indices seems to have carved a lower high around 11338 levels on April 30, 2020. If prices stay below 11338 levels, a sharp reversal could be on its way towards 8000 levels.

Fundamental Outlook:

DAX has managed to rally since the beginning of May until yesterday. The indice is trading close to 10784 levels as we write and it is expected to remain subdued for the next 2 trading sessions. Future price action in DAX would be taking cues from German and Euro zone GDP figures coming out on Friday, May 15, 2020. German GDP is expected to print -2%, while Euro zone at -3.3%, YoY.

Gold prices are struck in a range since $1747 highs in mid-April 2020. It has been in a contracting triangle consolidation and could continue for a while. Even the NFP report last week could not break the range $1740-$1660. Gold may gain as investors look for an alternate, with GDP forecasts for 2020 remain gloomy.

Oil remained subdued yesterday with WTI Crude dropping over 2.5% and Brent closing lower by over 2%. The decision taken by the OPEC+ members on cutting production (by over 10 million barrels per day) effective May 2020, has had a positive effect, as WTI Crude has rallied from $10.27 to $27.95 per barrel between April 28 and May 06, 2020. The gradual opening of economies in the Europe and US has further added to the optimism in Global Demand.

Technical Analysis:

DAX might be back in control of bears if 11338 potential resistance remains intact. The indice had print highs at 11338 on April 30, 2020 and reversed sharply lower to find support around 10370 mark. The subsequent rally over the last week had stalled around 11000 before reversing lower again. A break below 10400 would confirm that trend has reversed.

DAX had earlier dropped between 13800 and 7950 levels as an impulse. The subsequent counter trend rally might have completed around 11338 levels. It is also close to the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous drop at 11587 levels. High probability remains for a bearish resumption from current levels or from around 11600, going further.

Traders might have initiated fresh short positions from 11300 levels and could add further if DAX reached 11500/600. Protective stop remain above the 12300 mark and projected targets below 8000 levels.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

DAX Chart

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