Bottom line: WTI Crude long term bullish structure remains intact as long as it trades above $0.01, the April lows. A major resistance at $29.00 has been successfully taken out indicating bulls are completely in control and here to stay for long.

Fundamental Outlook:

WTI Crude and Brent gained close to +8.0% yesterday to close at $32.20 and $35.45 per barrel respectively. It was their highest close since April 2020, backed by Global Equity markets. The SPX500 and Dow Jones also rallied to their highest levels since March 23, 2020 posting gains of over +3.0% each. News for near potential COVID-19 find by Moderna Inc. fueled the above rally, shrugging off US-China tensions at least for now.

DAX posted an impressive rally bouncing back from last week’s low at 10160 (gap opening) and closing around 11058 yesterday. The German Indice gained over +5.50% as Germany and France came up with a joint proposal for the EU recovery fund of EUR 500bn. The German and Euro zone Economic Sentiment Index to be out around 05:00 AM EST is expected to rise, which could further boost the above rally.

Gold managed to open this week into the green again and rallied to fresh highs at $1765 before reversing lower. The Fed remains committed to do whatever it takes to support the economy and there could be more stimulus coming if required. Watch out for FOMC minutes to be out tomorrow for further tone and guidance.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude got past major resistance at $29.00, and managed to print $33.06 yesterday. This is a significant technical move, which confirms the rally is far from over. We expect prices to correct lower in the immediate future but overall trend might have turned bullish in the long run.

WTI Crude could soon resume its corrective phase towards $20.30 and $12.50 levels respectively, as bulls prepare to take a break. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards $12/13 mark, which is potential price for the next rally to resume.

Most traders might have booked profits around $30.00 and would be prepared to remain flat as WTI Crude corrects lower. Aggressive traders might initiate short positions with a strict stop above $34.00 levels respectively.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

WTI Crude Chart

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