Bottom line: EURUSD structure continues to remain bullish against 1.0636 support. Bulls continue to remain in control as they print close to 1.1390 highs last week. We can expect a shallow pullback, before the next target at 1.1500.

Fundamental Outlook:

EURUSD exchange rate has been the biggest beneficiary in the past 2 weeks as it had reached close to 1.1400 levels last week. It would be taking cues on the distribution of the proposed EURO 750 billion recovery fund by the European Union to help recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The exchange rate might gain further on the agreement of the proposed fund, by all members.

GBPUSD has also managed to rise, pushing through 1.2700 levels. The currency pair might be facing volatility this week, as news come in regarding Brexit talks on the proposed extension of July 01 deadline. The better than expected NFP (+2.5million jobs were added) last week also helped gain as the US Dollar faced a tough week.

Oil prices continued to surge further today, as WTI Crude trades at $39.84, up nearly +2% as we write this article. On the other side Brent is also up over +2.0%, trading close to $42.80. The decision taken by the OPEC+ to continue its production cut of 10 million barrels per day by another month has aided prices further.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD bulls remain in control as they continue to print higher highs and higher lows since 1.0730 levels earlier. They had managed to print 1.1384 highs on Friday before pulling pack and bulls would remain poised to push towards 1.1500 resistance in the short term.

EURUSD is pulling back and might find support around 1.1180 levels, which is also the fibonacci 0.382 support of the recent rally between 1.0775 and 1.1384 respectively. A bullish bounce there would again bring back bulls into play and move towards 1.1500, which is major resistance.

A break above 1.1500 would imply that the long term trend has turned bullish and that EURUSD might remain buy on dips over the next several months. Alternately, a break below 1.0730 and subsequently 1.0636 would be encouraging for bears, going further.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

EURUSD Chart

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