Bottom line: WTI Crude medium term outlook remains bullish against $0.01 lows in April 2020. In the short term though, bears might remain in control as they prepare to push prices lower towards $24.00 levels at least.

Fundamental Outlook:

DAX had rallied close to 2.0% yesterday closing in around 12280 mark along with most Global Indices. Believe it or not, yesterday’s rally across risk-assets might be seen as a bull trap. COVID-19 infections have crossed over 10,400,000 and deaths over 500,000.

US in particular and the Asia-Pacific region has seen a dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases over the last few weeks. It could be just a matter of time before DAX along with Dow Jones, SPX500, NASDAQ, FTSE and others face another selloff.

WTI Crude has eased off its highs from $41.60 over the last week along with Brent Crude, which has slipped lower from $44.00 per barrel highs since June 23, 2020. Oil prices may feel renewed selling pressure as the world faces risk of another wave of COVID-19 infections.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude might have carved an intermediary top around $41.60 levels over the last week. It had dropped through $37.10, before staging a pullback rally towards $39.90 levels yesterday. Bears might be preparing for another round lower towards $24.00 in the short term.

WTI Crude has rallied from over $0.01 lows in April towards $41.60 highs on June 23, 2020. A corrective drop remains high probability before the commodity resumes higher again. The fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the above rally is seen through $24.00. High probability remains for a bullish bounce if prices manage to reach there.

Traders might be willing to sell around $39.50/40.00, with protective stops above $41.60 and projected targets towards $24.00 at least. The next fibonacci support comes in at $20.00 for a potential bullish reversal.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

WTI Crude Chart

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