Bottom line: WTI Crude long term structure remains bullish against $0.01 lows. The commodity might be facing selling pressure towards $25.50 in the near term, after having topped around $41.60 levels in June 2020.

Fundamental Outlook:

DAX had managed to register an intraday high at 12869 levels, before reversing sharply. The indice closed at 12551, down more than -1.0% alongside the SPX500 and Dow Jones. Asian markets have opened gap down today with Nikkei and Hang Seng trading close to -0.80%, as we prepare to publish.

COVID-19 infections have surpassed 13 million worldwide and deaths over 575,000. The tally rose from 12 to 13 million in just 5 days with a few states in the US being worst affected. India has also been adding close to 25K per day since beginning of July and is now the 3^rd largest affected country.

Gold has slipped below $1800.00 mark after touching $1812/13 highs yesterday. The yellow metal might come under pressure as the US Dollar Index might see a surge across several majors. Risk associated currencies like the Aussie Dollar might have topped at 0.7000 handle.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude might have carved an intermediary to around $41.60 levels in June and could be on its way lower towards $25.50 over the next few weeks. Bears might remain in control until $41.60 resistance holds.

WTI Crude has managed to carve a bullish boundary between $0.01 and $41.60 levels since April 20, 2020. The RSI is also seen in overbought territory and indicating a bearish divergence. A corrective drop towards $25.50 should be seen as a healthy sign.

Also note that $25.50 is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the earlier rally. A bullish bounce can be expected if prices manage to reach there, in the short term. Most traders might remain short for now, with protective stops above $41.60 and projected targets around $25.50.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

WTI Crude Chart

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