Bottom line: SPX500 long term bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 3400 mark. The indice managed to print a lower high at 3238 (spot) yesterday, before closing. Bears might remain inclined to resume lower from here.

 Fundamental Outlook:

NZDUSD had raised through 0.6600 mark last week before facing an increased selling pressure. The exchange rate is trading lower at 0.6550/55 as we prepare to publish the update. With rising trade war situation between US-China, COVID-19 pandemic rising again, the risk related currency NZD might be exposed to further downside.

USDJPY had rallied towards 107.31 before reversing, and closed lower towards 106.92 levels. The US Dollar has come under pressure since the last 2 trading sessions, as risk appetite returned. Global Indices managed to rally along with the EURO against the safe haven US Dollar.

SPX500 futures has rallied over +2.3% in the past 2 trading sessions. The indice managed to print 3241 intraday before closing at 3230 yesterday. Hopes over the COVID-19 vaccine developments from Moderna has kept the investor sentiment upbeat, pushing risk assets higher.

Technical Analysis:

SPX500 might be preparing to reverse sharply lower after having carved a lower high around 3238 yesterday. The indice is expected to stay below the 3400 resistance and turn lower towards 2200 and further, over the next few months.

SPX500 had dropped from 3400 highs on February 24, through 2200 lows by March 23, 2020. The drop was an impulse wave, which should ideally be followed by a corrective phase. Between March 23 and July 15, 2020, the indice seems to have produced a corrective rally.

SPX500 could potentially terminate the above corrective rally towards 3250 levels, or might have already completed at 3238 yesterday. Either way, the indice is expected to resume lower anytime soon towards March 2020 lows.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

SPX500 Chart

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