Bottom line: EURUSD long term structure remains bullish against 1.0636 lows in March 2020. Bulls might be looking poised to push towards major resistance around 1.1500 levels before taking a break.

 Fundamental Outlook:

EURUSD has opened the week on a positive note and is trading around 1.1460/65 as we prepare to publish. The exchange rate shall be taking cues from the EU Summit, which failed to reach an agreement last week. The EURO 750 billion stimulus package might reach to a consensus this week.

COVID-19 infections continue to be in the news around US and Asian Countries. Global cases have crossed above 14.5 million and the number of deaths above 600,000 mark. A few states in the US might be going back to lock sown phase as infections continue to rise.

GBPUSD is trading lower today around 1.2545 levels after trading in a range over the last week. The exchange rate will be taking its cues from the Brexit negotiations to be held again today. The EU and UK negotiations has been locked over the “Fisheries Control”.

FTSE had rallied over +2.75% last week and managed to close at 6333 mark. The indice is trading marginally lower around the 6300 mark as of now. The rally over the last week, was in tandem with the SPX500, Dow Jones and DAX as risk assets gained. It remains to be seen how long this continues amidst fears of a second wave of COVID-19 infections.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD bulls continue to remain in control as they attempt another push towards 1.1500 levels. They have managed to print intraday highs around 1.1455 levels as we prepare to publish, and should remain poised to push towards 1.1490/1.1500 levels, going further.

EURUSD would be taking out a major resistance at 1.1500 levels and confirm a long term trend reversal. The currency would complete an impulse wave that had begun since 1.0636 lows earlier. EURO bulls would remain in control, going forward.

EURUSD focus remains 1.1500 over the next few trading sessions. The currency pair would produce a corrective drop once resistance at 1.1500 is taken out successfully. It will also confirm that EURUSD would reach much higher levels, 1.1800 and 1.2000 over the coming months.

Most traders might book profits on long positions if EURO manages to reach 1.1500. Aggressive traders might initiate fresh short positions thereafter, to take advantage of the proposed corrective drop 1.0900 levels.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

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