Bottom line: GBPJPY might be facing resistance around 140.00/141.00 mark. A bearish turn here, would push prices lower towards 132.00 and 128.00 levels going forward. Alternately, a push above 143.00 would threaten a break towards 148.00 respectively.

 Fundamental Outlook:

USDCHF has reversed lower from 0.9200 highs on August 12, 2020. The exchange rate might gain further as the US Dollar might be beneficiary over the next few trading sessions. The US Dollar would be taking its cues from the ongoing negotiations for new fiscal stimulus over unemployment benefits, which expired on July 31, 2020.

Major geopolitical event is due over the weekend as US and Chinese officials meet tomorrow. The meeting shall be focused on Phase-1 trade deal implementation and other areas of conflicts between the two nations. Any disruptive development here might act as a huge trigger for markets on Monday.

GBPJPY ticked higher towards 104.20 levels yesterday. The exchange rate might come under renewed selling pressure if risk sentiment reversed over the next few sessions. The anti-risk Japanese Yen might strengthen if risk aversion returns, amidst a no deal on new fiscal stimulus in the US and US-China tensions.

Technical Analysis:

GBPJPY has just managed to tick higher towards 140.00/20 mark yesterday. This could still be considered as a potential test and bears might come back in control from here. A drop below 138.00 would instill further confidence into the bearish setup as they target 132.00.

GBPJPY had earlier dropped from 148.00 through 124.00 levels in March 2020. The drop has been retraced through fibonacci 0.618 levels around 139.75/140.00 until now. A bearish reversal from here still remains high probability.

Alternately, if bulls manage to continue towards 143.00, which is fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the earlier drop, GBPJPY might push through 148.00 levels. The entire structure might turn bullish in that case. Most readers might still be preparing to initiate fresh short positions with stop above 143.00 levels.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

GBPJPY Chart

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