Bottom line: WTI Crude long term structure continues to remain bullish against $0.01 lows in March. The commodity might have carved a lower top around $43.50 mark as bears are looking poised to push towards $34.00 levels at least.

 Fundamental Outlook:

DAX has remained almost flat, closing marginally lower around 12887 mark yesterday. SPX500 was an exception closing higher by +0.50% around 3384 levels. DAX, along with global indices might be taking its cues from the FOMC, ECB over the week. Also rising US-China tensions remain a major cause of concern for risk sentiment, going forward.

WTI Crude process are trading steady around $42.50/60 levels for now, as it awaits the OPEC meet scheduled for tomorrow. It remains to be seen if production cuts are further tapered from 7.7 million barrels per day, amidst rising COVID-19 infections across Europe again.

Gold prices eased off to $1862 last week but is gaining traction again as the metal trades above $2000 mark today. On the news front, Warren Buffets’ Berkshire Hathaway has surprisingly bought a gold mining company, Barrick Gold. Gold need to break below$1862 to confirm further downside.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude seems to have hit resistance around $43.50 levels over the past few trading sessions. The commodity trades lower around $42.50/60 as we prepare to publish this update and bears are looking inclined to remain in control from here on.

WTI Crude has managed to rally from its historic lows at $0.01 since March 2020. The commodity has managed to push towards the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the earlier drop between $65.00 and $0.01 levels respectively. It has managed to print just above the fibonacci 0.618 retracement.

High probability remains for a drop towards $35.00 levels from here. Initial support is seen towards $38.50 and a break there would be constructive for bears to continue further. Most traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions against $44.00 mark.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

WTI Crude Chart

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